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Starbucks ($SBUX) is in an interesting position. You would expect premium coffee purchases to be down in the current economic climate. The company has also just raised prices on some beverages. Yet $SBUX is currently trading toward the top of their 52-week range at US$19.35. Time to have a bit of a look.

Valuecruncher Interactive Analysts Report For Starbucks ($SBUX)

The key comparators are Tim Hortons ($THI), a direct competitor, and McDonalds ($MCD), a low-cost substitute.  You can change the generated peer companies on the site.

So what do we think?

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

We have completed a discounted cash flow valuation using our interactive tools (there is a “discounted cash flow analysis” link just under the company name on the company page). We have populated our model with a mixture of consensus analyst estimates and Valuecruncher estimates. Our analysis produces a valuation of US$11.95 for $SBUX – 38.7% below the current share price. We see $SBUX well overvalued using a discounted cash flow model. But how about compared to a peer group?

Comparison Analysis

I am going to look at two of the metrics we use at Valuecruncher – Enterprise Value (EV)/Revenue and EV/EBITDA. Enterprise Value (EV) is simply market capitalization plus net debt [long-term borrowings less cash]. We use EV to capture the impact of debt and cash on a company’s balance sheet – market capitalization doesn’t capture different capital structures when comparing companies.

EV/Revenue shows how a dollar of revenues is being valued by the market against the comparator set. On an EV/Revenue basis $SBUX is trading at 1.5x ($SBUX is being valued at 1.5x last year’s revenues). This compares to $THI at 3.0x and $MCD also at 3.0x. $SBUX’s profit margins (at the EBITDA line) were 11.6% of revenues last year – against 25.4% at $THI and 31.5% at $MCD.  A dollar of $SBUX revenues is being valued at half that of a dollar of $THI and $MCD revenues – this is broadly in-line with the difference in profit margins in the businesses last year.  This is what we would expect.

EV/EBITDA shows how a dollar of profit (measured in as Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization) is being valued by the market against the comparator set. On an EV/EBITDA basis $SBUX is trading at 12.7x ($SBUX is being valued at 12.7x last year’s profit at the EBITDA line). $THI is trading at 11.8x and $MCD is trading at 9.3x. This difference will represent the different expected profit margins and growth prospects between the businesses – as being valued by the market. We are surprised that $SBUX profits are being more highly valued than their competitors. This suggests that the market currently believes that $SBUX’s fortunes are about to improve significantly and some of the gains are already being priced into the stock.

Summary

Based on our DCF valuation – $SBUX looks significantly overvalued. Looking at some comparators we are surprised that $SBUX is being so highly valued (especially on an EV/EBITDA basis) agaist key comparators $THI and $MCD. $SBUX looks a sell at these prices.

Disclosure: no positions.

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This week Starbuck’s (SBUX) announced it was closing 500 US locations and cutting 7% of its workforce. At Valuecruncher we decided to have a look at some projected financial numbers to analyse what this means for the slower brewing coffee giant utilising our on-line valuation tool.

This is the quantitative take on Starbucks – for a qualitative take; Portfolio magazine profiles Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz in this month’s issue.

SBUX Valuation

Starbucks grew revenues from US$5.3 billion in 2004 to US$9.4 billion in 2007 – a 21% compound annual growth rate. Our assumptions of revenues for the next three years are US$10.5 billion in 2008 growing to US$12.5 billion in 2010 – a 9% compound annual growth rate. We have projected EBITDA margins to be flat at 10%. We have used a terminal growth rate of 4.5%. We calculated this terminal growth rate based on year three growth of 8.7% dropping to a 4% stable growth rate by year 10. We used a terminal capital expenditure number of US$800 million. We have used a WACC (discount rate) of 10%.

Valuecruncher Valuation SBUX

Our analysis incorporates the cash and debt on the Starbucks balance sheet – Valuecruncher calculates a net debt number.

Our analysis gives a valuation of US$15.07 which is 4.3% below the current share price of US$15.74.

Based on our analysis the current valuation looks slightly overvalued. Play with our assumptions – what does your analysis say?

Valuecruncher has a database of over 1,000 companies on major international exchanges. You can explore, create and share valuations for any of these companies.