Cisco ($CSCO) are featured in Barron’s looking at how their revenues could hit the US$100 billion level (2009 revenues US$36.1 billion). With the $CSCO share price over US
$25 – 52-week range US$16.30-26.85 – we decided to have a quick look.
We have the comparator group set as Hewlett-Packard ($HPQ), Lexmark ($LXK), Intermec ($IN) and Netezza ($NZ). You can change these peer companies on the site. For example you could add:
- Microsoft ($MSFT) – Interactive Analyst Report For $MSFT
- IBM ($IBM) – Interactive Analyst Report For $IBM
- Hewlett-Packard ($HPQ) – Interactive Analyst Report For $HPQ
- Juniper Networks ($JNPR) – Interactive Analyst Report For $JNPR
So what do we think?
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
We have completed a discounted cash flow valuation using our interactive tools (there is a “discounted cash flow analysis” link just under the company name on the company page). We have populated our model with a mixture of consensus analyst estimates and Valuecruncher estimates. Our analysis produces a valuation of US$27.71 for $CSCO – 6.5% above the current share price. We see $CSCO slightly undervalued at the moment. But how about compared to a peer group?
I changed the peer group companies to $MSFT, $IBM, $HPQ and $JNPR as noted above. I am going to look at only one of the metrics we use at Valuecruncher – EV/EBITDA. Enterprise Value (EV) is simply market capitalization plus net debt [long-term borrowings less cash]. We use EV to capture the impact of debt and cash on a company’s balance sheet – market capitalization doesn’t capture different capital structures when comparing companies. EV/EBITDA shows how a dollar of profit (measured in as Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization) is being valued by the market against the comparator set.
On an EV/EBITDA basis $CSCO is trading at 13.6x ($CSCO is being valued at 13.6x last year’s profit at the EBITDA line). A dollar of $CSCO EBITDA is worth more a dollar of $MSFT, $IBM or $HPQ EBITDA. $CSCO’s EV/EBITDA is less than $JNPR’s but that relates to greater growth expectations and a poor 2009 financial year for $JNPR. $CSCO makes more margin at the EBITDA line than any of these comparators except $MSFT. The comparators look about right.
Based on our DCF valuation – $CSCO looks slightly undervalued. Looking at some comparators – the market is valuing $CSCO in-line with expectations – compared to the peer group. $CSCO is trading close to 52-week highs – but this looks justified.