Archive for the ‘ASX’ Category

Running The Numbers - Fairfax Media ($FXJ.ASX)

Sunday, November 23rd, 2008

Fairfax Media ($FXJ.ASX) is an ASX-listed media company. $FXJ.ASX has extensive operations in both the Australian and New Zealand markets. $FXJ.ASX is trading toward the bottom of their 52-week range. How is this in relation to the intrinsic value of the company’s shares?

Valuecruncher valuation model of $FXJ.ASX with interactive assumptions

Valuecruncher produces a valuation of A$1.68 for $FXJ.ASX. This is a current valuation (an estimate of intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model) not a target price. This valuation is 20.0% above the current share price of A$1.40. All of the figures below are in Australian dollars (A$).

Assumptions

  • Revenue: Reuters aggregates nine analysts covering $FXJ.ASX and the mean estimates of 2009 and 2010 revenues are A$2.94 billion and A$3.08 billion respectively. For our analysis we have used A$2.85 billion in 2009, A$2.90 billion in 2010 and A$3.0 billion in 2011.
  • Profitability: We have used an EBITDA margin of 25.0% in 2009 rising to 26.0% in 2011. Reuters has $FXJ.ASX‘s EBITD margin at 28.5% last year and averaging 26.4% over the last five-years.
  • Capital Expenditure: We have assumed capital expenditures of A$120.0 million per annum moving forward.
  • Discount Rate: 11.0%. We believe a discount rate in the 10-12% range is appropriate. We have chosen the middle of this range.
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 1.0%.

Our analysis incorporates the cash and debt on the $FXJ.ASX balance sheet – Valuecruncher calculates a net debt number.

Play with our assumptions – what does your analysis say?

Disclosure: None

Telstra Corporation

Saturday, January 27th, 2007

Valuecruncher’s mid-point valuation of Telstra Corporation is $4.03 per share with a range between $3.18 and $4.95. The current share price is $4.24.

Key Assumptions

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth has been fluctuating for Telstra due to a 5-year restructuring plan that is currently taking place. Growth rates for the last three periods have been -1.55% (03/04 period), 5.46% (04/05 period) and 2.93% (05/06 period). Telstra expects revenue to grow by 2-2.5% in the next financial period. We have forecasted growth rates of 2%, 2.5%, and 3% for the next three periods, slowly climbing towards terminal growth of 3%.

EBIT Margin

Telstra’s EBIT margins have recently declined from 31% in 2004 and 2005 to 24% in 2006. This is attributed to the movement of the business into newer low-margin products as a result in technological development. Telstra have forecasted EBIT to rise by 2-4% in 2007, corresponding to EBIT margins between 23.8-24.3%. We have forecasted margins to remain at 24% in 2007 and to further decrease to 22% and 20% in 2008 and 2009.

Discount Rate

The discount rate applied is 10% (following the discount rate presented in the ‘Financial Performance & Performance Analysis’ document that Telstra have released.

Terminal Growth

Terminal growth is assumed to be 3%.

Telstra Corporation Valuation

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What is Valuecruncher?

Sunday, January 21st, 2007

Last Friday Valuecruncher was featured in the “Shoeshine” column of the New Zealand National Business Review (NBR).  I would love to provide a link – but it requires a subscription (and I don’t do links to walled content).  I will put a copy of the NBR article on the blog soon.  This coverage in the NBR has resulted in a number of queries along the lines of “what is Valuecruncher?”.  This post aims to provide an answer.

The very simple answer is we value companies.  We use the same valuation methodologies as leading investment banks – discounted cash flow analysis, comparison company and acquisition analysis, and net tangible assets.  Instead of having to go to expensive experts (investment bankers and maybe accountants) we use the same frameworks as these experts but simplify the process to provide a robust indication of value.  Our valuations cost NZ$1,000 (plus GST) and are turned around in 24-48 hours – at least 10x cheaper than alternative options and 10x quicker.

Our clients provide the information in the form that we require and we do the corporate finance math.  There is a one-page input sheet that provides the key information we require (and a guide to where the input sheet information comes from).  If advisers (such as accountants) use our service we pay 15% to the adviser – the adviser completes the input sheet as they will have access to all the required information.

Valuecruncher uses the inputs and runs them through our models – and has one of the Valuecruncher team review the outputs.  The outputs are reviewed by a valuation professional – a real person.  We have not patented our processes as they are not radically new – they are what all of the leading investment banks use for valuing businesses.  We have made the frameworks used by leading professionals available at a price most people can afford.

Why do people and companies require valuations?  Investing in companies, selling stakes in companies, and fair value assessments in disputes are some of the reasons for valuations.  We regularly see business owners that simply want to see an indication of what their business could be worth.  At NZ$1,000 (plus GST) people can obtain a valuation at a cost-effective price.

We have two parts to our business:

1. Private valuations for clients – which are never in the public domain.

2. We operate a blog (which you are reading) – where we use publicly available information to complete valuations of companies (and businesses) that are topical.

We are aiming to provide a service where small business owners can get access to the same valuation techniques that leading investment banks use – at a reasonable price.

We are also aiming to improve the quality of valuation in the market generally.  We are based in New Zealand and currently focus on that market.  We don’t believe that the valuation work that comes into the public domain in New Zealand (or the wider world for that matter) is particularly good.  There are very strong valuation professionals in New Zealand (and internationally) – but they primarily provide private advice to well-paying clients.  The valuation expertise available to the media, smaller investors and the general “man in the street” is not strong.  We are aiming to improve that.

The Valuecruncher blog provides some education on valuation (i.e. what is a share price?) and a database of valuations on major New Zealand companies (i.e. Trade Me), Australian companies (i.e. Qantas), international companies (i.e. Google) and topical transactions (i.e. the sale of Telecom New Zealand’s Yellow Pages Group).

We would like to see all NZX-listed, NZAX-listed and Unlisted-listed companies in New Zealand complete a Valuecruncher valuation on a six-monthly or yearly basis and make them available on their websites.  Even doing it twice a year would only cost NZ$2,000 (plus GST) a year and provide all shareholders with a consistent valuation framework – additional transparency for all stakeholders.  We can complete valuations for any stakeholders – give us the inputs and we can do the math.  We list the assumptions that we have used – more transparency.

Our framework is what the professionals use.  The Valuecruncher model is a simplified version of what leading investment banks use in major mergers and acquisitions and other corporate transactions.  Valuecruncher provides an indicative valuation – but one using the same methods that the professionals use.

To obtain more information on Valuecruncher email your query to info@valuecruncher.com or call Mark Clare on 0800-470227.

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Rinker Group

Friday, January 19th, 2007

Valuecruncher places a mid-point value of $17.29 on each Rinker share. The current share price of $18.24 is close to the mid-point valuation and is well within the valuation range of $13.78 to $21.06.

Key Assumptions

Revenue Growth

Rinker has experienced very strong revenue growth in the 05/06 period with a growth rate of 17%. This is higher than the growth rates seen in the previous two periods of 9.43% and 14.09%. We have forecasted growth rates of 17%, 14% and 10% for the next three periods, following trends and forecasts that have been stated in the company’s 2006 annual report.

EBIT Margins

EBIT margins have increased from 13.36% in 2004 to 22.43% in 2006 but it is unlikely that these margins will remain high due to increasing raw material, energy and freight costs. We have forecasted EBIT margins at 20%, 17% and 14% in the next three years.

Discount Rate (WACC)

The discount rate applied is 9%.

Terminal Growth

Terminal growth is expected to be 3%.

Rinker Group Valuation

David Jones

Wednesday, January 17th, 2007

Valuecruncher has valued each David Jones share at $3.92 with a range between $2.77 and $5.12. The current share price $4.31.

Key Assumptions 

Revenue Growth

David Jones has been slowly rebuilding since the company was in dire straits in 2003. Although revenue growth has been slowing, EBIT margins have been on the rise and the profitability of the company has been improving since the implementation of their new business strategy in 2003. Revenue growth has decreased since the 03/04 period from 3.41% to 1.15% in the 05/06 period. We have forecasted growth to be 2% for the next three periods, which is the company’s average historical growth rate, and also the same growth that has been applied to the Kirkcaldie and Stains valuation.

EBIT Margins

EBIT margins have grown from -1.04% in 2003 to 8.02% in 2006. The annual report states that growth in profit after tax will be between 5-10% in 2007, corresponding to an average forecasted EBIT margin of 9% in 2007. We have forecasted margins to be 9% for 2007 and 10% for 2008 and 2009.

Discount Rate (WACC)

The discount rate applied is 11%.

Terminal Growth

Terminal growth is assumed to be 2%.

David Jones Valuation

Woolworths

Thursday, January 11th, 2007

Valuecruncher has placed a value of $21.60 on each Woolworths share, with a range between $13.56 and $30.07. The current share price is $22.89, 6.0% higher than our mid-point valuation.

Key Assumptions

Revenue Growth

Woolworths have been experiencing very rapid revenue growth in the past three periods with growth rates rising from 6.13% in the 03/04 period to 20.36% in the 05/06 period. The 2006 director’s report states that, “…the best is yet to come,” so in following this, we have forecasted revenue growth to increase to 25% in the 06/07 period but then decline to 20% and 15% in the 07/08 and 08/09 periods.

EBIT Margin

EBIT margins have been rising slowly over the past three years, from 3.81% in 2004 to 4.56% in 2006. We believe that these will continue to rise as the hotel and electronics section of the business becomes a major part of Woolworths’ growth strategy. We have forecasted margins to be 5%, 6% and 7% for the next three years.

Discount Rate

The discount rate applied is 11%. This is higher than the average discount rate in the consumables section of the PwC Cost of Capital Report but is within the range of the discount rates indicated in the Woolworths’ 2006 annual report.

Terminal Growth

Terminal growth is assumed to be 3%.

Woolworths Valuation

Qantas

Saturday, December 9th, 2006

Valuecruncher’s mid-point valuation for Qantas is $4.27 per share, with a range between $2.54 and $6.10. The current share price of $5.20 falls within the higher end of the Valuecruncher range.

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth has been declining since 2004 with growth being 10.66% in the 04/05 period and 8.61% in the 05/06 period. We have forecasted growth to be 8%, 7%, and 6% for the next three periods, heading towards terminal growth of 3%.

EBIT Margin

EBIT margins have also been falling since 2004 (9.67%, 8.07%, and 5.32% for 04, 05, and 06, respectively). The projected EBIT margins are 5% for 07 and 08, and 7% in 09. This follows forecasts made in the 2006 Qantas Annual Report, stating that EBIT margins are unlikely to improve in the next two years due to rising fuel costs, but as more efficient operating strategies are put in place, an improvement in margins may be seen after the next two years.

Discount Rate (WACC)

The discount rate used in the analysis is 10.5%, the cost of capital stated in Qantas’ Annual Report.

Commentary

The Qantas share price has recently jumped up to around $5.00 due to an announcement of a possible buyout by Macquarie Bank and Texas Pacific Group, a private equity firm (from a share price pre-announcement of ~$4.20). The mid-point valuation calculated by Valuecruncher is based on Qantas’ current business plan, and is in line with the value of the shares pre-announcement. Analysts have suggested that Qantas should be looking to fetch over $5.50 per share in the event of a buyout.  Valuecruncher will watch with interest if details of how additional value will be created by the buy-out group are released.  Texas Pacific Group has a track record of success with airlines (not many can claim that) and what a higher value business plan for Qantas might look like has ramifications for airlines across the globe, but especially Air New Zealand.

Qantas Valuation

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